Jawsworthy NFL Picks Week 5

I bounced back from a 7-8 week with a 10-6 record for the Week 4 games, despite teams like the Falcons and Patriots losing unexpectedly. It was a big win for me to keep me on the right trajectory to 65%.

Overall record: 36-26 (58.1%)

Patriots at Buccaneers :: Buccaneers
This is INCREDIBLY hard for me. I never bet against Tom Brady if I can help it, and it doesn’t help that Tampa Bay’s passing defense is just as bad as the Patriots. Doug Martin could either show explosiveness or rust this game. I expect a shootout, but Bill Belichick has never won in Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers aren’t traveling on this short week so I’ll select the upset. I’m cringing right now.

Bills at Bengals :: Buffalo
Buffalo is playing to their strengths and while I don’t believe they last, they’ll beat a bad team in Cincinnati in a surprisingly good game.

Cardinals at Eagles :: Philadelphia
If David Johnson was in this game, it’d be closer than people think. But man, the Eagles are a good ball club. Arizona needs David Johnson back, also known as their offense.

Jaguars at Steelers :: Pittsburgh
After the Jaguars couldn’t beat the Jets and the Steelers impressively beat the Ravens (26-9), it’s a no-brainer. Now these teams could overreact to last week and the Steelers could be sloppy while the Jaguars look great, but I can’t see it happening.

Titans at Dolphins :: Miami
With Marcus Mariota likely not playing, these are two horrific offensive teams. Miami has scored 6 points in the past 2 games and aren’t looking too shabby with Jay Cutler and Jay Ajayi. However, I believe Matt Cassel won’t like his performance in Week 5 as he loses on the road. This pick is made easier with DeMarco Murray not playing well also.

Chargers at Giants :: New York (Giants)
Two winless teams are interesting because Eli Manning is playing the Chargers. EVERYONE knows Eli doesn’t like the Chargers! This losing record for the Giants won’t go forever and since they’re at home, it’ll end this week. I’m almost sure of this.

49ers at Colts :: Indianapolis
These teams are baaaaad, but the Colts are at home. Brian Hoyer’s thrown 12 interceptions through 4 games and the Colts have one of the leading intercepting players in the NFL, Malik Hooker with three. Plus, Jacoby Brissett isn’t that bad.

Jets at Browns :: New York (Jets)
I’d love for Cleveland to capitalize on a bad team and win their first game, but I’ve sold all my stock in the little hope Cleveland would actually win a game! In the meantime, the Jets should win their third game this week. While both McCown and Kizer have thrown 3 interceptions, Kizer has thrown 5 more interceptions. It’s a throwaway mistaken year for the Browns with Kizer, and so it’s realistic to believe this is a loss.

Panthers at Lions :: Detroit
The Panthers impressed against the Patriots last week, but that was against the worst-passing defense in the league. Detroit is much better defensively than New England, and ironically both the Lions and Panthers have given up 17.5 points per game this year. Cam Newton is more prone to make costly mistakes than Matt Stafford, so this is what I base my pick on.

Ravens at Raiders :: Baltimore
If Derek Carr plays, it’s a no-brainer, but EJ Manuel is going to reek. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t gotten it going yet and won’t likely with the threat of an aerial attack gone. Plus, I believe Baltimore has a chip on their shoulder after last week’s loss to Pittsburgh they will come out and win their first non-divisional game.

Seahawks at Rams :: Los Angeles (Rams)
Seattle got hot offensively against the Colts, but that’s self-explanatory. This Rams team is really good, and if they can punch the ball in the endzone, they’ll be even more dangerous. If it was in Seattle, I’d pick the Seahawks, but I can’t trust a road Seahawks squad until they show me differently.

Packers at Cowboys :: Green Bay
With no word on Sean Lee, the Cowboys defense isn’t as good at the linebacker level. While Dallas used a bend-and-don’t-break mentality last week, it costed them in the long-run. It wasn’t a bad game, but they’re facing Aaron Rodgers now. Dallas should take care of business offensively against a bad Packers defense, but it’ll come to the final possession and Green Bay can win.

Chiefs at Texans :: Kansas City
This is a game worthy of the primetime slot. Houston is playing top-tier ball since Deshaun Watson took over, but Kansas City is all-around the deepest team in the NFL and is solid at almost every area. I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if Houston wins, but I won’t bet against the Chiefs right now with Alex Smith having the best passer rating in the NFL and completing a whopping 76% of his passes.

Vikings at Bears :: Chicago
I nearly put Minnesota, but the loss of Dalvin Cook to go along with Sam Bradford’s absence? Now, Sam Bradford may return, but the Bears have had 11 days of rest after a Thursday Night Football game – that helps any ball team! Plus, they’ve made a change at quarterback. Mitch Trubisky should spark this offense and Trubisky will get his first win in the NFL.

 

This was an incredibly tough week to pick games. I can see a lot of them going either way, and picked a few upsets in this one that hopefully pays off. Let’s see if you are brave enough to pick the underdogs.